New study shows trendy technologies eventually outgrow the supply of experts and crash in popularity

Modeling the boom-and-bust pattern of cultural productivity. For a) Atari 2600 video games, b) cryptocurrencies, and c) Reddit posts, we show the temporal dynamics predicted by the population-based model. We show the real cultural productivity, N(t) = x(t) + y(t), during that period (open blue circles), the predicted cultural productivity (orange solid line) and the population of experts x(t) and imitators y(t) at any given time t (green and red dashed lines, respectively). As an inset for each case, we report the expected population growth (2p(t) − 1) due to product novelty p(t) in that period. Credit: Humanities …
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